Barclays Capital forecasts 2012 LED industry ten topics:

Barclays Capital predicts that the LED industry in 2012 will usher in "flat year" by the excess capacity, the average selling price (ASP) pressure and moderate growth in demand for wholesale LED light bulbs and other factors troubled. However, the power LED and MOCVD equipment in the semiconductor industry and MOCVD equipment to upgrade the market still has some opportunities.

1 Although the LED manufacturers weak capital spending, but the MOCVD equipment vendor for equipment upgrades may add additional revenue streams. MOCVD equipment upgrade revenue of $ 200,000 (simple upgrade) to 150 million.

2. MOCVD equipment replacement market is unlikely to increase. LED manufacturers and end-market demand, revenue growth will slow hinder the expansion of large-scale MOCVD equipment replacement. Although some of the MOCVD equipment suppliers and major customers are used refurbished / unpacked MOCVD equipment to remove the damaged parts before upgrading, and once again provide the warranty period, the equipment manufacturers for first-and second-line LED is still not attractive.

3 gallium nitride (GaN) / silicon carbide (SiC) power electronic devices will become a MOCVD equipment in the growth of small applications. STMicroelectronics (STM), Infineon and Analog Devices are all purchasing from AIXTRON and Veeco MOCVD equipment.

4 Although the U.S. Applied Materials, Inc., and some Chinese manufacturers, also joined the market, but the main equipment supplier or AIXTRON MOCVD and Veeco, both MOCVD market share of 90 percent, and will benefit from the MOCVD equipment update.

5 Although the Barclays that Applied Materials, Inc. can not acquire any large LED equipment suppliers, because in 2011 it has acquired the semiconductor equipment company VSEA, but the LED device manufacturers still exists the possibility of mergers and acquisitions.

6 The United States and Europe will perform incandescent ban, but in view of existing incandescent inventory, the move is unlikely to promote the 2012 LED market demand. The LED lights will really become popular in Japan.

7. LED components / lighting prices will make the non-residential project payback period is more optimistic. Barclays estimated that 2011 LED chip / component, the average selling price dropped 30-40%.

8 Although the government may provide a variety of subsidy policy, but the China LED lighting products market demand for LED may be together with the overall market decline. There is no indication that the eight billion yuan the central government subsidies have now been deployed.

9. LED lighting market penetration will increase steadily. As the average selling price pressure, LED component suppliers related to revenue growth will slow down.

10. Barclays said, Samsung, and LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor LED suppliers such as South Korea's product quality has been improved. Samsung and LG will probably be the Cree, Osram, Nichia and Lumileds LED manufacturers and other traditional first-line major threat.